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Using the Bayesian credible subgroups method to identify populations benefiting from treatment: An application to the Look AHEAD trial

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dc.contributor.author Coonan, Anna
dc.contributor.author Schnell, Patrick
dc.contributor.author Smith, Joel
dc.contributor.author Forbes, John F.
dc.date.accessioned 2020-04-29T07:27:03Z
dc.date.available 2020-04-29T07:27:03Z
dc.date.issued 2020
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10344/8767
dc.description peer-reviewed en_US
dc.description.abstract Traditionally, subgroup analyses are used to assess whether patient characteristics moderate treatment effectiveness with general disregard for issues of multiplicity. Using data from The Action for Health in Diabetes (Look AHEAD) trial in the United States, we aim to identify a subgroup where all of its types of members experience a treatment benefit defined as reducing the likelihood of a major cardiovascular event under an intensive lifestyle and weight-loss intervention. We apply the credible subgroups method to a Bayesian logistic model with a conservative prior that is sceptical of large treatment effect heterogeneity. The covariate profiles for which there is sufficient evidence of treatment benefit are, coarsely, middle-aged women, in poor subjective general health and with moderately to poorly controlled diabetes. There is at least 80% posterior probability that the conditional average treatment effect is positive for all covariate profiles fitting this description, which account for 0.5% of trial participants. Conversely, the covariate profiles that are likely to be associated with no benefit are middle aged and older men in excellent subjective general health, with well-controlled diabetes. These profiles apply to less than 2% of trial participants. More information is required to determine treatment benefit or no benefit for the remainder of the trial population. en_US
dc.language.iso eng en_US
dc.publisher Public Library of Science en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries PLOS ONE;15( 4), e0231241
dc.subject heterogeneity en_US
dc.subject diabetes en_US
dc.subject cardiovascular en_US
dc.title Using the Bayesian credible subgroups method to identify populations benefiting from treatment: An application to the Look AHEAD trial en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article en_US
dc.type.supercollection all_ul_research en_US
dc.type.supercollection ul_published_reviewed en_US
dc.identifier.doi 10.1371/journal.pone.0231241
dc.contributor.sponsor HRB en_US
dc.contributor.sponsor National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research en_US
dc.relation.projectid HRB-RL-2013-11 en_US
dc.rights.accessrights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess en_US
dc.internal.rssid 2953842


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