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Past and future burden of inflammatory bowel diseases based on modeling of population-based data

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Show simple item record Coward, Stephanie Clement, Fiona Benchimol, Eric I. Bernstein, Charles N. Avina-Zubieta, Antonio J. Bitton, Alain Carroll, Mathew W. Hazlewood, Glen Jacobson, Kevan Jelinski, Susan Deardon, Rob Jones, Jennifer L. Kuenzig, Ellen M. Leddin, Des McBrien, Kerry A. Murthy, Sanjay K. Nguyen, Geoffrey C. Otley, Anthony R. Panaccione, Remo Rezaie, Ali Rosenfeld, Greg Peña-Sánchez, Juan Nicolás Singh Harminder Targownik, Laura E. Kaplan, Gilaad G. 2019-04-02T13:16:41Z 2019-04-02T13:16:41Z 2019
dc.description peer-reviewed en_US
dc.description.abstract BACKGROUND & AIMS: Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) exist worldwide, with high prevalence in North America. IBD is complex and costly, and its increasing prevalence places a greater stress on health care systems. We aimed to determine the past current, and future prevalences of IBD in Canada. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using population-based health administrative data from Alberta (2002–2015), British Columbia (1997– 2014), Manitoba (1990–2013), Nova Scotia (1996–2009), Ontario (1999–2014), Quebec (2001–2008), and Saskatchewan (1998–2016). Autoregressive integrated moving average regression was applied, and prevalence, with 95% prediction intervals (PIs), was forecasted to 2030. Average annual percentage change, with 95% confidence intervals, was assessed with log binomial regression. RESULTS: In 2018, the prevalence of IBD in Canada was estimated at 725 per 100,000 (95% PI 716–735) and annual average percent change was estimated at 2.86% (95% confidence interval 2.80%–2.92%). The prevalence in 2030 was forecasted to be 981 per 100,000 (95% PI 963–999): 159 per 100,000 (95% PI 133–185) in children, 1118 per 100,000 (95% PI 1069–1168) in adults, and 1370 per 100,000 (95% PI 1312–1429) in the elderly. In 2018, 267,983 Canadians (95% PI 264,579–271,387) were estimated to be living with IBD, which was forecasted to increase to 402,853 (95% PI 395,466–410,240) by 2030. CONCLUSION: Forecasting prevalence will allow health policy makers to develop policy that is necessary to address the challenges faced by health systems in providing high-quality and cost-effective care. en_US
dc.language.iso eng en_US
dc.publisher Elsevier en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries Gastroenterology;156 (5), pp. 1345-1353.e4
dc.subject Crohn disease en_US
dc.subject ulcerative colitis en_US
dc.subject epidemiology en_US
dc.subject forecast modeling en_US
dc.title Past and future burden of inflammatory bowel diseases based on modeling of population-based data en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article en_US
dc.type.supercollection all_ul_research en_US
dc.type.supercollection ul_published_reviewed en_US
dc.identifier.doi 10.1053/j.gastro.2019.01.002
dc.contributor.sponsor Digestive Health Strategic Clinical Network, Alberta Health Services en_US
dc.contributor.sponsor Crohn’s and Colitis Canada en_US
dc.contributor.sponsor Canadian Association of Gastroenterology en_US
dc.relation.projectid 153420 en_US
dc.relation.projectid THC-135235 en_US
dc.rights.accessrights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess en_US

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