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Numbers of close contacts of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 and their association with government intervention strategies

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dc.contributor.author McAloon, Conor G.
dc.contributor.author Wall, Patrick
dc.contributor.author Butler, Francis
dc.contributor.author Codd, Mary
dc.contributor.author Gormley, Eamonn
dc.contributor.author Walsh, Cathal Dominic
dc.contributor.author Duggan, Jim
dc.contributor.author Murphy, Brendan T.
dc.contributor.author Nolan, Philip
dc.contributor.author Smyth, Breda
dc.contributor.author O'Brien, Katie
dc.contributor.author Teljeur, Conor
dc.contributor.author Green, Martin J.
dc.contributor.author O'Grady, Luke
dc.contributor.author Culhane, Kieran
dc.contributor.author Buckley, Claire
dc.contributor.author Carroll, Ciara
dc.contributor.author Doyle, Sarah
dc.contributor.author Martin, Jennifer
dc.contributor.author More, Simon J.
dc.date.accessioned 2022-01-27T12:52:19Z
dc.date.available 2022-01-27T12:52:19Z
dc.date.issued 2021
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10344/10960
dc.description peer-reviewed en_US
dc.description.abstract Background: Contact tracing is conducted with the primary purpose of interrupting transmission from individuals who are likely to be infectious to others. Secondary analyses of data on the numbers of close contacts of confirmed cases could also: provide an early signal of increases in contact patterns that might precede larger than expected case numbers; evaluate the impact of government interventions on the number of contacts of confirmed cases; or provide data information on contact rates between age cohorts for the purpose of epidemiological modelling. We analysed data from 140,204 close contacts of 39,861 cases in Ireland from 1st May to 1st December 2020. Results: Negative binomial regression models highlighted greater numbers of contacts within specific population demographics, after correcting for temporal associations. Separate segmented regression models of the number of cases over time and the average number of contacts per case indicated that a breakpoint indicating a rapid decrease in the number of contacts per case in October 2020 preceded a breakpoint indicating a reduction in the number of cases by 11 days. Conclusions: We found that the number of contacts per infected case was overdispersed, the mean varied considerable over time and was temporally associated with government interventions. Analysis of the reported number of contacts per individual in contact tracing data may be a useful early indicator of changes in behaviour in response to, or indeed despite, government restrictions. This study provides useful information for triangulating assumptions regarding the contact mixing rates between different age cohorts for epidemiological modelling. en_US
dc.language.iso eng en_US
dc.publisher BMC en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries BMC Public Health;21, 2238
dc.subject COVID-19 en_US
dc.subject SARS-CoV-2 en_US
dc.subject contact tracing en_US
dc.subject interventions en_US
dc.title Numbers of close contacts of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 and their association with government intervention strategies en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article en_US
dc.type.supercollection all_ul_research en_US
dc.type.supercollection ul_published_reviewed en_US
dc.identifier.doi 10.1186/s12889-021-12318-y
dc.rights.accessrights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess en_US


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