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Calibrating COVID-19 susceptible-exposed-infected-removed models with time-varying effective contact rates

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dc.contributor.author Gleeson, James P.
dc.contributor.author Murphy, Thomas Brendan
dc.contributor.author O'Brien, Joseph D.
dc.contributor.author Friel, Nial
dc.contributor.author Bargary, Norma
dc.contributor.author O'Sullivan, David J.P.
dc.date.accessioned 2021-12-02T08:51:17Z
dc.date.available 2021-12-02T08:51:17Z
dc.date.issued 2021
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10344/10837
dc.description peer-reviewed en_US
dc.description.abstract We describe the population-based susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model developed by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG), which advises the Irish government on COVID-19 responses. The model assumes a time-varying effective contact rate (equivalently, a time-varying reproduction number) to model the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A crucial technical challenge in applying such models is their accurate calibration to observed data, e.g. to the daily number of confirmed new cases, as the history of the disease strongly affects predictions of future scenarios. We demonstrate an approach based on inversion of the SEIR equations in conjunction with statistical modelling and spline-fitting of the data to produce a robust methodology for calibration of a wide class of models of this type. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance’. en_US
dc.language.iso eng en_US
dc.publisher The Royal Society Publishing en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries Philosophical Transactions A;380, 20210120
dc.subject epidemic modelling en_US
dc.subject differential equations en_US
dc.title Calibrating COVID-19 susceptible-exposed-infected-removed models with time-varying effective contact rates en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article en_US
dc.type.supercollection all_ul_research en_US
dc.type.supercollection ul_published_reviewed en_US
dc.identifier.doi 10.1098/rsta.2021.0120
dc.contributor.sponsor SFI en_US
dc.relation.projectid 16/IA/4470 en_US
dc.relation.projectid 12/RC/2289_ en_US
dc.relation.projectid 16/RC/3918 en_US
dc.relation.projectid 12/RC/2275_P2 en_US
dc.relation.projectid 16/RC/3835 en_US
dc.rights.accessrights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess en_US


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