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Defining national biogenic methane targets: implications for national food production & climate neutrality objectives

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dc.contributor.author Prudhomme, Remi
dc.contributor.author O'Donoghue, Cathal
dc.contributor.author Ryan, Mary
dc.contributor.author Styles, David
dc.date.accessioned 2021-08-03T11:33:22Z
dc.date.issued 2021
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10344/10433
dc.description peer-reviewed en_US
dc.description The full text of this article will not be available in ULIR until the embargo expires on the 23/06/2023
dc.description.abstract Methane is a short-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) modelled distinctly from long-lived GHGs such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide to establish global emission budgets for climate stabilisation. The Paris Agreement requires a 24–47% reduction in global biogenic methane emissions by 2050. Separate treatment of methane in national climate policies will necessitate consideration of how global emission budgets compatible with climate stabilisation can be downscaled to national targets, but implications of different downscaling rules for national food production and climate neutrality objectives are poorly understood. This study addresses that knowledge gap by examining four methods to determine national methane quotas, and two methods of GHG aggregation (GWP100 and GWP*) across four countries with contrasting agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sectors and socio-economic contexts (Brazil, France, India and Ireland). Implications for production of methane-intensive food (milk, meat, eggs and rice) in 2050 and national AFOLU climate neutrality targets are explored. It is assumed that methane quotas are always filled by food production where sufficient land is available. Global methane budgets for 1.5 °C scenarios are downscaled to national quotas based on: grand-parenting (equal percentage reductions across countries); equity (equal per capita emissions); ability (emission reductions proportionate to GDP); animal protein security (emissions proportionate to animal protein production in 2010). The choice of allocation method changes national methane quotas by a factor of between 1.7 (India) and 6.7 (Ireland). Despite projected reductions in emission-intensities, livestock production would need to decrease across all countries except India to comply with quotas under all but the most optimistic sustainable intensification scenarios. The extent of potential afforestation on land spared from livestock production is decisive in achieving climate neutrality. Brazil and Ireland could maintain some degree of milk and beef export whilst achieving territorial climate neutrality, but scenarios that comply with climate neutrality in India produce only circa 30% of national calorie and protein requirements via rice and livestock. The downscaling of global methane budgets into national policy targets in an equitable and internationally acceptable manner will require simultaneous consideration of the interconnected priorities of food security and (land banks available for) carbon offsetting. en_US
dc.language.iso eng en_US
dc.publisher Elsevier en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries Journal of Environmental Management;295, 113058
dc.relation.uri https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113058
dc.rights This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Environmental Management . Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Journal of Environmental Management, Volume 295, 1 October 2021, 113058 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113058 en_US
dc.subject net zero GHG en_US
dc.subject climate stabilisation en_US
dc.subject CH4 en_US
dc.subject LULUCF en_US
dc.subject land sparing en_US
dc.subject carbon offset en_US
dc.title Defining national biogenic methane targets: implications for national food production & climate neutrality objectives en_US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article en_US
dc.type.supercollection all_ul_research en_US
dc.type.supercollection ul_published_reviewed en_US
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113058
dc.contributor.sponsor EPA en_US
dc.date.embargoEndDate 2023-06-23
dc.embargo.terms 2023-06-23 en_US
dc.rights.accessrights info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess en_US


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